Eurasian integration and the internal socio-political conflict potential of the Central Asian region

Abstract

The article examines the internal security challenges in the Central Asian region (CAR), the causes of conflicts within the countries of the region. The article describes the general and special features of the socio-political situation in the CAR countries. This study was conducted within the framework of the theory of conflict. The paper uses the author's typology of costs and risks on the path of interstate integration: growth risks (economic, social, security) and immanent risks, as well as characteristics of the nature of regional conflicts. The author analyzes Russia's interests in the CAR, the conflict potential of the region, and the prospects for the development of Eurasian integration in the region. The main conflict-causing internal political factors are: poverty of the population, the growth of social differentiation, high unemployment, an overabundance of the able-bodied population, socio-economic instability; the archaization of public life; interethnic contradictions; the presence of a religious fundamentalist and extremist underground, waiting for the moment to seize power; the spread of drug addiction and the activities of organized criminal communities engaged in transit drug trafficking; the threat of political destabilization of the region both in the process of transferring power to a new generation of leaders and the change of leadership elites. Eurasian integration can strengthen the Russian vector in the policies of the countries involved in Eurasian integration, but it will not eliminate the influence of other vectors, it will only balance them. Participation in the Eurasian integration can help the CAR countries strengthen their independence and sovereignty. Since foreign "multi-vector" policy, often understood as a distance from Russia, leads to an increase in dependence on other centers of power, which ultimately contradicts the national interests of the CAR nations themselves.