Eurasian integration and the interstate conflict potential of the countries of the Central Asian region

Abstract

The article considers external security challenges in the Central Asian region (CAR), the causes of interstate instability and the emergence of regional conflicts. This study was conducted within the framework of the theory of conflict. The main conflict-causing foreign policy factors in the CAR are: the presence of hotbeds of military conflicts near the countries of the region; the threat of the spread of instability in the countries of the region and the likelihood of armed provocations; the activities of international terrorist and radical organizations and groups, the strengthening of the positions of religious extremism in neighboring countries near the borders of the CAR countries; the strengthening of China's economic role and its penetration into the CAR, the growing dependence of the countries of the region on the PRC; the penetration of extra-regional, Western actors into the CAR; conflicting interethnic and interstate contradictions and territorial-border disputes. The problems of cross-border interaction and the general use of water and energy resources in the CAR are considered. The reasons for the emergence of interstate conflict situations are indicated. These are the shortage of water and energy resources; territorial and border disputes with neighbors and the claims of some states to regional leadership; unresolved territorial claims, accumulated territorial disputes between the CAR states with insufficient validity of borders. Various approaches to solving the problem of water scarcity in the CAR are analyzed. Conclusions and forecasts of developments regarding the development of Eurasian integration and ensuring Russia's national interests in the CAR are given. It is concluded that the current and prospective situation in the CAR is based on integration and conflict scenarios. These two categories make up a dialectical pair, with the help of which it is possible to understand and describe the processes in the CAR, and throughout the post-Soviet space. Probabilistic scenarios of the development of integration processes in the Central Asian countries for the medium and long term are proposed.