Economic and Mathematical Model of the Development of the Digital Ecosystem of the Regional Economy (Using the Example of the Kursk Region)

Abstract

Relevance. To form a system of measures for the digitalization of individual regions and the country as a whole, as well as for their effective implementation, it is necessary to develop an economic and mathematical model that allows assessing the current state of the digital ecosystem of the regional economy (DEED). The purpose is development and testing of an economic and mathematical model for the development of the digital ecosystem of the regional economy (using the example of the Kursk region). Objective: systematization of factors and indicators by categories characterizing the development of the digital ecosystem of the regional economy; calculation of indicators for each set of "Factor ‒ Indicator" for the Kursk region for the period from 2016 to 2021; conducting correlation and regression analysis for the categories "Science", "Innovation", "Human Resources", "Education", "Healthcare", "Households", "Business", "Regional Authorities". Methodology. The methodological basis of the study was: the method of statistical processing of information; methods of regression and correlation analysis. Results: factors and indicators are systematized into categories that characterize the development of the digital ecosystem of the regional economy; indicators were calculated for each set of "Factor ‒ Indicator" for the Kursk region for the period from 2016 to 2021; a correlation and regression analysis was carried out for the categories "Science", "Innovation", "Human Resources", "Education", "Healthcare", "Households", "Business", "Regional Authorities". Conclusions. Practical testing of the developed economic and mathematical model using the example of the Kursk region for some processes gave ambiguous results: a low value of the coefficient of determination, as well as non-compliance with the normative values of the Fisher f-criterion, t-criteria for the factor and the free term, which does not means the economic and mathematical model we have developed is incorrect. These results can be explained by the fact that in the region the processes under study, expressed in a certain relationship between the factor and the indicator, are at the initial stage of their formation or have not been formed. The developed economic and mathematical model for the development of the digital ecosystem of the regional economy allows us to assess the current state of the DEER, identify factors that constrain and stimulate its development, determine areas requiring financing, as well as the expected effect of the resources spent.