Формирование методического подхода к прогнозированию устойчивого развития региона

Abstract

Subject/topic. The article is devoted to the scientific problem of sustainable development of the region. Issues of sustainable development have become acutely discussed in the international community at all levels of government, in connection with environmental pollution, ecosystem depletion, and climate warming. The problems of reducing the quality of life and the economic inexpediency of regional investment projects are added to environmental problems. The subject of the study is a methodological approach to forecasting the sustainable development of the region. Goals/objectives. The purpose of the study is to develop an author's methodological approach to forecasting the sustainable development of the region, taking into account its specific features and taking into account the accumulated experience in this area. Methodology. The research methodology was a systematic approach, which used: a retrospective analysis of significant indicators of regional development, approximation, statistical methods of information processing, correlation and regression analysis. The empirical basis of the study was Rosstat data on the socio-economic development of the regions. Results. The author's methodological approach to forecasting the sustainable development of the region includes methods and techniques for building an economic model and assessing its quality. A universal algorithm for the formation of an economic model for forecasting the sustainable development of the region has been developed. The selection of independent and dependent variables - factors influencing the sustainable development of the region - has been carried out. The presented economic model of forecasting the sustainable development of the region, developed on the basis of correlation and regression analysis, reflects the peculiarities of the development of a particular subject of the Russian Federation. The model is quite reliable from the point of view of statistical estimates, which makes it possible to conclude that it describes the sustainable development of the region with high probability. Conclusions/significance. The novelty of the study lies in the development of the author's methodological approach, which includes an algorithm for the formation of such an economic model, which will identify social, environmental and economic factors affecting the sustainable development of the model region and assess the degree of their influence. As a result, it was possible to identify priority areas of activity of public authorities to achieve sustainable development of the Moscow region. Application. The proposed algorithm for forming an economic forecasting model is universal and can be applied to predict the sustainable development of other regions, taking into account the assessment of the quality of the economic model. The results obtained can be useful for substantiating management decisions of public authorities on the sustainable development of regional systems, forecasting the sustainable development of the region, taking into account its specific features affecting the development of the ecosystem.