Ecological and economic assessment of sustainable spatial land management in the context of global climate change: economic and mathematical modeling

Abstract

This article emphasises that the degree of anthropogenic (ecodestructive) impact on the state of agricultural production is the main criterion for assessing the development of sustainable spatial land management under certain ecological and economic constraints. The aim of the study is to model the ecological and economic assessment of the transformation of the territorial-spatial management of agricultural land at different levels of management, taking into account the impact of anthropogenic (ecodestructive) factors to ensure sustainable land use in the context of global climate change. Thus, the methodology of territorial-spatial analysis of the efficiency of transformation of modern agricultural land use and use of land and resource potential is aimed at determining its holistic assessment as a systemic and complex phenomenon. An economic-mathematical model for calculating the optimal structure of sown areas by placing crops between production structures of different levels of management, taking into account their susceptibility to the action of a particular ecodestructive (anthropogenic) factor, is proposed. The allocation of agricultural production based on the presented model implies redistribution of production of certain types of products, taking into account minimisation of economic losses from anthropogenic (ecodestructive) factors, in particular, industrial air pollution. The paper considers the possibilities of quantifying the economic consequences of climate change in the system of agricultural land use. It is proved that the assessment of economic losses from climate change in the system of sustainable agricultural land use requires the development of a system of cost standards that correspond to the input climate parameters. This article presents natural indicators and regional adjustment coefficients of agricultural production in case of an increase in the average annual air temperature by one degree, with differentiation by regions of Ukraine. An algorithm for economic assessment of the impact of changes in the thermal regime of the atmosphere on the efficiency of the crop production industry is presented. The proposed modelling of the territorialspatial improvement of agricultural land use efficiency is a methodological approach to assessing the environmental consequences of transforming the efficiency of management in agriculture in terms of reducing and preventing economic losses from anthropogenic (ecodestructive) factors in the context of global climate change. So, the practical implementation of the presented methodological approach to the economic assessment of the impact of global climate change on agriculture will allow to substantiate recommendations for the formation of a system of actions that would allow to avoid or at least reduce the negative climate impact.