Crop models for assessing impact and adaptation options under climate change

Abstract

Increased amount of green house gases (GHG) in the atmosphere will cause climate change that will adversely impact crop production especially in the arid and semi-arid regions of the developing countries. Development and implementation of field level adaptations measures to cope up with climate change are necessary to the farmers whose livelihood depends on crop-based income. Crop simulation models that incorporate soil-crop-climate processes of plant growth and that are sensitive to climate change factors can be used to quantify impact of climate change on crop production and evaluating and prioritizing adaptation measures at farm level. This paper analyses the impacts of climate change and plausible agronomic, land and water management and genetic adaptations options for the major crops of the semi-arid tropical region with examples from selected sites in India and other developing countries. The crop models need to be linked to the improved pest, disease and weed models to analyze and predict yield losses, especially those due to climate change. The simulation models also need to incorporate the impact of extreme weather events on crop production that is projected to increase with climate change.