Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Research Requires Farming Systems Analysis and Integrated Assessment: A Case Study in the Netherlands

Abstract

Rather than on crop modelling only, climate change impact assessments in agriculture need to be based on farming systems analysis and integrated assessment. With a case study for arable farming in Flevoland, the Netherlands (Reidsma et al., 2015), we illustrate that 1) crop models cannot account for all relevant climate change impacts and adaptation options, and 2) changes in technology, policy and prices have had and are likely to have larger impacts on farms than climate change. While crop modelling indicates positive impacts of climate change on yields of major crops in 2050, a semi-quantitative and participatory method assessing impacts of extreme events, shows that there are nevertheless several climate risks (Schaap et al., 2013). A range of adaptation measures are however available to reduce possible negative effects at crop level. In addition, at farm level, farmers can change cropping patterns, and adjust inputs and outputs (Kanellopoulos et al., 2014). Also farm structural change will influence impacts and adaptation (Mandryk et al., 2012). While the 5th IPCC report is more negative regarding impacts of climate change on agriculture compared to the previous report, also for temperate regions, our results show that when putting climate change in context of other drivers, and when explicitly accounting for adaptation at farm level, impacts may be less negative and opportunities are revealed. These results refer to a temperate region, but an integrated assessment may also change perspectives on climate change for other parts of the world.