Economic impacts of climate change on perennial plantation tree crops: the case of tea production in Sri Lanka

Climate Change, Sea Level Rise, and Adaptation: A Case Study of Bangladesh

Introduction There is a substantial literature about the future impacts of climate change (Nordhaus 1991; Cline 1992b; Fankhauser 1995; Mendelsohn et al . 2000; Tol 2002a); see Tol (2009b) for an overview. Less is known, however, about the impacts of climate change in the past. While there is no immediate policy relevance of estimates of past effects – as liability is yet to be established (Tol and Verheyen 2004) – such estimates would serve to validate models of future impacts – and thus help to improve these models and build confidence. In this chapter, I turn this question on its head. I use a model to backcast past impacts, thus generating hypotheses to be tested against observations. Unfortunately, there are no direct observations of the economic impact of past climate change. Note that the cause of climate change, past or future, is irrelevant for its impacts. There are, however, some studies that estimate particular aspects of the impact of past climate change, typically focussing on biophysical impacts.

In this paper, I analyze the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture as well as the adaptation possibilities of farmers. In my first chapter, I estimate the impact of climate change on agricultural land values using a variety of methods and forecast models. First, I combine a framework that incorporates different possible forecasts of future climate with degree days, a temperature measure that allows to capture the effects of extreme temperatures. I use this framework to estimate the damages of climate change relative to a constant 2002 climate. Second, I exploit climate variation over time between 1978 and 2002 within counties to estimate a land value regression. Using this variation, I can address the time-invariant omitted-variable bias of a cross-sectional regression. Furthermore, I estimate the impacts using a range of climate models. The present discounted damages range from $22 to $204 billion in 2002 dollars, with a mean of $67 billion dollars using a discount rate of 5 percent. In the models that use climate variation within counties over time, I find that estimated damages are on average $64 billion larger than the cross-sectional regressions. Furthermore, the choice of climate model has significant economic importance as the estimates across climate models vary by about $160 billion for nearly all specifications. Finally, I document substantial heterogeneity in impacts across counties. ,In the second chapter, Michael Greenstone, Ishan Nath, and I investigate how much farmers can adapt to climate change through their choice of crops. By combining a discrete choice framework with data on insurance costs for farmers, we estimate the impact of predicted changes in climate on farmer profits relative to other uses of land. In all specifications, climate change will produce a severe reduction in the share of land used to grow corn and soybeans in the US by the middle of the century. Farmers who grow corn would gain between 1.4 and 2.5 cents for an additional growing degree day relative to the outside option. On the other hand, farmers would lose between 17.9 and 32.3 cents from an increase in an additional growing degree days above 29 °C. We find similar results for soybeans. These results are robust across census years and choice sets. When farmers are allowed to re-optimize their land use, climate damages in 2050 are $8.9 to $11.8 billion lower compared to a scenario where their crop choice in 2002 is held constant.

Purpose The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of climate change and variability on agricultural production in Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) where the deleterious impacts of climate change are generally projected to be greatest. Design/methodology/approach The study used a production function model using Fixed Effect Regression (FER) analysis and then using marginal impact analysis to assess the impact of climate change and variability on agricultural production. Therefore, the study utilized panel data for the period 1961-2009 pooled from 20 countries in MENA region. Findings Results showed that 1 per cent increase in temperature during winter resulted in 1.12 per cent decrease in agricultural production. It was also observed that 1 per cent increase in temperature variability during winter and spring resulted in 0.09 and 0.14 per cent decrease in agricultural production, respectively. Results also indicated that increasing precipitation during winter and fall season and precipitation variability during winter and summer seasons had negative impact. The estimated parameters of square temperature and precipitation indicated that climate change has significant nonlinear impacts on agricultural production in MENA region. Originality/value Despite there are many studies on the impact of climate change on agricultural production, there is a lack of publications to address the economic impact of both climate change and variability on agricultural production in MENA region. Thus, these results are more comprehensive and more informative to policymakers than the results from field trials.

Several techniques have been used in the literature to estimate the economic impact of climate change on agriculture, many of which do not explicitly consider adaptation and thereby tend to produce biased estimates. Using a two-stage optimization procedure known as the structural Ricardian model, we estimate the impact of climate change on crop production by relying on climate, farmer and farm observations from Ghana. We make two contributions to the related literature. First, we estimate the response function between agricultural profits and land tenure system. In addition, we examine the influence of functional form on structural Ricardian estimates. We find that the impact of temperature on crop production is more noticeable than that of rainfall. In addition to climate, soil productivity and land tenure system influence crop selection and profit. Even though functional form does not seem to affect the structural Ricardian estimates, it influences the resulting predictions. Linear and semi-logarithmic specifications tend to simulate larger impacts of climate change as opposed to a Box-Cox transformation.

Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the twenty-first century, responsible directly or indirectly for approximately 12.6 million of all deaths globally and projected to cause an additional 250,000 deaths each year. A key area of concern is how climate change will influence the incidence, and spread of infectious diseases such as malaria. Approximately 3.3 billion, or half of the world’s population, are at risk from malaria and under climate change projections; this number is estimated to rise by 1.6 million by the year 2030 and by 1.8 million by the year 2050. Thus, understanding climate change and malaria risk is of significant public health concern, and this is particularly important for East Africa where current research shows that the disease is already spreading into areas where communities were previously unexposed to the disease. Studies on the impact of climate change on malaria transmission show that even the smallest variation in temperature can have an exponential change in the transmission of the disease. Temperature changes facilitate faster development of the parasite within the mosquito, faster reproduction of the mosquitoes, and more biting by the mosquitoes. Rainfall is also a driver of malaria transmission and can influence the development of the mosquito by creating suitable habitats for larvae and increasing mosquito abundance. Malaria is a disease with a complex transmission cycle which is also influenced at the local level, mainly by land cover, land use and land use change. These changes can introduce the mosquito into new locations, thus extending their range, creating suitable micro-habitat conditions for mosquitoes to breed, and also increasing mosquito abundance. While climate change does influence the global distribution of malaria, the spatial extent within regions will be determined by local land use factors and by other non-climatic factors. The latter include biological, social, demographic and cultural factors, along with human behaviour, drug resistance and public health interventions. At a local level, these factors can influence malaria transmission independently or by modifying the effects of climate change. Therefore, quantifying and understanding the impact of climate change needs consideration of the interactions between these other factors, climate change and malaria transmission. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria and the risk posed to vulnerable communities, there is insufficient understanding of the factors influencing the spread of the disease at the community level. There is a need for more robust risk assessments that not only consider the impact of climate change on malaria transmission, but also consider differences in topography, characteristics of the landscape, land use activities and other factors influencing risk. An integrated risk assessment is suitable as this can incorporate, at a biophysical level, an understanding of how climate change will impact on the current burden of the disease and at a social level, identify vulnerable populations, how susceptible they are to this risk and their capacity to respond. This PhD study therefore aims to determine risk of malaria infection in a highland and a lowland rural community in East Africa, in the context of climate change, climate variability, land use and other local factors to suggest suitable adaptation strategies. This study adopted a participatory systems approach, incorporating trans-disciplinary thinking from climate change science, malaria ecology and epidemiology, land use and land use change, social science and public health. Stakeholder engagement and contribution at different levels was used to provide useful and context-specific insights into factors influencing malaria risk at a community level. A mix of quantitative and qualitative data was collected in western Kenya, between August 2014 and February 2015, through focus group discussions, key informant interviews and secondary data analysis. This data was then analysed and integrated using Bayesian belief network models to estimate risk of malaria infection under current and future climate conditions and to evaluate the efficacy of different adaptation options in reducing this risk. The results of the Bayesian belief network model showed that at the highland study site, there was a significant increase in risk under future climate scenarios, but not so in the lowland study site. This difference in risk is mainly driven by changes in temperature. The model also showed that this risk is seven and a half times more significant if the influence of local factors, such as perception, health-seeking behaviour, information provision and utility, malaria prevention and malaria treatment are not considered in the model. This thesis identified three areas of interventions as main adaptation options: i) reducing exposure; ii) decreasing generic susceptibility and iii) increasing coping capacity. It further determined that in order to achieve sustainable adaptation strategies, it is critical to consider: i) community engagement; ii) multi-sectoral collaboration, ii) integrated early warning systems, and; iv) gender-differentiated vulnerability. Collaboration and integration between sectors will lead to stronger and more sustainable programs, and engaging the community early on during the risk assessment and adaptation process ensures that their views and needs are included into adaptation solutions, which will increase the prospects for long term program success and sustainability. This study has demonstrated that local stakeholders’ values and interests will influence different adaptation outcomes. This highlights the importance of tailoring adaptation strategies to local circumstances, which has useful implications for development of climate change and health policy.

I propose a strategy of measuring the long-run economic impact of climate change on farmland values that tackles the elusive problem of time-invariant spatially-dependent unobservables in the hedonic approach. The strategy exploits that a county’s agricultural productivity is primarily influenced by its own climate, and the fact that climate assignment appears random conditional on average county-neighborhood characteristics. Results suggest that large impacts of climate change on US agriculture seem unlikely. Findings are robust to multiple checks and cannot be attributed to measurement error. Ignoring such confounders considerably overstates long-run climate change impacts on the sector.

The plantation crop sector, particularly tea, is a key contributor to the Sri Lankan economy in terms of foreign exchange earnings, employment, and food supply. However, changes in temperature, rainfall, and the occurrence of extreme weather events have adversely affected the sector. Many studies in the literature have focused on climate change impacts on major annual crops; however, to date, comprehensive assessments of the economic impacts of weather variations on perennial crops are rare. In this paper, we use monthly panel data from 40 different tea estates in Sri Lanka over a 15-year period to analyse weather effects on production from the tea plantation sector. Specifically, we use a two-stage panel data approach to explore how tea production in Sri Lanka is affected by both short-term weather variations and long-term climate change. Overall, our findings show that a hotter and wetter climate will have a detrimental effect on Sri Lankan tea production. In high, medium, and low emissions futures, our predictions show a negative proportional impact from increased rainfall and increased average temperature. Under a high emissions scenario, by mid-century, a decline of 12% in annual tea production is predicted. Other climate-susceptible perennial crops such as rubber, coconut, and oil palm play similarly major roles in the economies of other developing countries, suggesting that our approach could usefully be replicated elsewhere.

Due to climatic change and variability, achieving sustainability in agricultural development with emphasis on satisfying basic human needs and improving people’s standard of living through enhancing food security and reducing poverty has been a challenge in Southern Africa. This discussion is a synthesis of counter productive developmental disparities in agricultural production in poor communities, focusing on issues of research, science and technology, and how these may influence agricultural development in the context of climate change. This gives possible insight on research, science and technological innovations that can be explored as strategies for agricultural development tailored made for poor communities, focusing particularly on Southern Africa. Climate change and variability is an area in which considerable uncertainty remains, especially in developing countries with implications suggesting that the future holds many types of disruption in poor communities, but no clear trends have yet been identified, whereas observations of the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in the world's poorest people are often alarmist. Research, science and technology plays a key role in economic growth, social development, cultural enrichment and democratic empowerment. It is assumed that through the ‘gender lens’ an understanding of engendered research, science and technology through examination of specific gender roles, activities, responsibilities, opportunities and constraints in agricultural production which compromise the achievement of greater equality between women and men within their spheres of interaction in agricultural production will address the fundamental issue of climate change and agricultural productivity. Gender is a socio-economic variable which can be used to analyze vulnerability and adaptive capacity of people against climate change and variability in local communities in Southern Africa. Dealing with the inevitable impact of climate change is now high on the agricultural development agenda in most developing countries. Therefore, engaging in appropriate research, climate change science and agricultural technologies targeted at poor rural people through planning adaptation and mitigation efforts can reduce the risks of climate change while accelerating progress towards food security and reducing poverty. In this discussion, it is noted that apart from appropriate research, climate change sciences and technology as some of the strategic steps that can be adopted for future viable agricultural production in the context of climate change, it may also include and not limited to the following: promotion of gender equality and equity in agricultural production in terms of resource allocation, training and gender sensitive policies. This gives room for innovative prospects for the agricultural systems of the future, supplemented by a critical look at all the major mitigation and adaptation attempts under way and what this means for research, science and technology for agricultural development. Developing countries should come up with their own resources to develop the capacity to adapt to environmental change in order to improve agricultural productivity. There is need for constant review of adaptation strategies through research, climate change science and agricultural technologies because the speed and intensity of climate change is outpacing the speed of autonomous adaptations and is threatening to overwhelm the ability of poor rural people to cope. On the other hand developing countries can use climate change policies to leverage human capacity, investment, and climate change and agricultural technology to capture large-scale pro poor mitigation opportunities, while simultaneously augmenting their agricultural development goals. It is vital that we come up with appropriate research, understand climate change science and agricultural technology that underlie the global climate talks, in order to work with poor communities to find concrete alternatives in response to the issues surrounding the climate , while heeding the demands of sustainable agricultural development.

This discussion explores the opportunities and challenges in enhancing food production and security in the context of climatic variability in Sub Saharan Africa. The promotion of sustainable use of plant and animal products with emphasis on satisfying basic human needs, improving people’s standard of living, enhancing food security and reducing poverty have taken a center stage in Sub Saharan Africa. However, the efforts in this direction are being impacted negatively by climate change, through animal and crop production which have not been spared due to the natural disasters and environmental challenges which have affected all regions of Sub Saharan Africa indiscriminately. Climate is a particularly important driver of food production systems performance at the agriculture end of the food chain. It can affect the quantities and types of food produced as well as production-related income especially for the poor resource farmers. In order to be able to adequately address food production and security in the context of climate, there is need for the region to carry out thorough climatic vulnerability and adaptation assessments. Supporting research and training of experts to carry out vulnerability and adaptation assessments on crop and livestock production is crucial in order for respective countries to develop climate change adaptation measures to meet the obligation on food production and security. Sub Saharan Africa’s agro-ecological regions are variable and need to develop specific adaptive measures to reduce vulnerability to climate change. Due to the changing climatic conditions which the continent has already witnessed many severe climatic induced vulnerability such as decline in rainfall amounts and intensity, reduced length of rain season and increasing warm and occasionally very hot conditions has affected food production and security. Crop and livestock production systems will need to adapt to higher ambient temperatures, lower nutritional value of feed resources and new diseases and parasites occurrence. It can be seen that the present crop and livestock production systems based on pastoral or rangeland grazing husbandry systems, ecological destruction through climatic variability and overgrazing due to high stocking rates in areas where feed and water has been compromised due to high temperatures caused by climate change does not augur well for future livestock productivity. The understanding of climate change variables and their impacts is the first step in climate change research and prerequisite for defining appropriate adaptive responses by local crop and livestock farmers. Sustainable crop and livestock production supporting rural development should be compatible with the goals of curbing the effects of climate change. Production priorities should be directed towards promoting local crop and livestock genetic resources by providing comprehensive research support services on the impact of climate change. Both crops and livestock play important roles in farming systems, as they offer opportunities for risk coping, farm diversification and intensification, and provide significant livelihood benefits and food security. The discussion therefore, concludes that the effectiveness of biophysical responses of crop and livestock production systems to specific environmental challenges that are anticipated as a result of climate change, and then the range of adaptive measures that might be taken by local producers to ameliorate their effects will be the prerequisite for defining appropriate societal responses and meet food security targets.

Global warming by 2 °C or above will frequently see weather beyond the critical tolerance threshold for agricultural extreme high temperatures. If so, people will have to more accurately evaluate the opportunities and risks posed by future climate change while adjusting the structure of agricultural production. However, accurate assessment results of the impacts of climate change on crop yield are absent in the current studies on the impact of climate change on the agricultural economy. To address this gap, this paper sets forth a comprehensive evaluation method using a crop model coupled with a computable general equilibrium model. According to research findings, future climate change may continue with the trend of the continued decline of grain planting areas and the continued growth of cash crop planting areas in ecologically vulnerable regions. This will make grain security more difficult. On one hand, perennial crop planting broadens the eco-space for future economic and social development in ecologically vulnerable regions. Therefore, attention should be paid to grain security. The cash crop planting area should not be excessively expanded. On the other hand, it is advised to plant perennial crops in those areas which are unsuitable for planting cash crops.

The aims of this work is to estimate some climatic and economic effects of climate change regard to some important agricultural cultivation in Tuscany: olives, grapevines and wheat. The multidisciplinary approach has allowed the examination of the dynamics of climate and farming yield, and some effects on the profitability of crops. The use of atmospheric models and agronomic models, has allowed the localization of the crops effects that may occur during this century. The subsequent economic evaluation, based on changes in gross farm income, has also generated results that could serve as a contribution towards the estimated impact of global economic impacts of climate change. The proposed framework revealed itself to be an effective tool for climate change impact assessment at a very local scale. Additionally, this approach may be easily extended to testing the effect of different adaptation strategies in terms of management practices (e.g. irrigation) and selection varieties (e.g. longer or shorter cycle, advanced or delayed bud burst).

Impacts of climate change on public health in Australia

Climate change is a pervasive global issue that threatens the livelihoods and wellbeing of billions living globally. Climate change is a risk multiplier impacting all ecosystems, society, and sectors of the economy. The agriculture sector is one such sector that is highly vulnerable to changes in climate. In a country like Nepal where rainfed agriculture is a dominant occupation and a key pillar of the country’s economy, climate change brings risks and negative consequences for on-farm production, farmers' livelihoods as well as on the country’s development. The impacts of climate change including rising temperatures, an increase in the frequency or intensity of extreme weather events such as drought, and shifts in the rainfall seasonality, can cause a decline in food production and threaten the quality of food supplies, leading to reduced food security. The rise in the global population will increase global demand for food which implies that agriculture needs to boost production and increase yields, among other things. The unprecedented risks posed by climate change potentially undermine the ability of farms and farm holders to grow adequate and quality food. The severity of these risks varies due to a range of underlying factors including low economic development, their location, existing biophysical and socioeconomic conditions, and institutional arrangements. While the impacts of climate change on food production as well as agricultural practices in Nepal have been documented, there is a dearth in scholarly literature that has assessed the impacts of climate change on household food security in Nepal incorporating farmers’ perspectives and in particular smallholder subsistence farmers. Furthermore, there is only modest literature that has examined geographical variations in those experiences and understandings. This PhD study aimed, therefore, to investigate the effects of climate change on agricultural practices and food security, with a focus on subsistence smallholder farmers in three main agro- ecological zones of Nepal known as The Mountains, Hills, and the Terai. The study aimed to respond to the primary research question: How are Nepalese farming communities being impacted by climate change and how are they responding to ensure their continued food security? To answer this main research, question the study posed the following secondary research questions: Q1. How is climate changing and how is it impacting subsistence agriculture? Q2. What are the farmers experiencing and what is their understanding? a. Are there gender differences in understanding and experiencing? Q3. What is the state of food insecurity among these farmers? a. How is it being impacted by climate change? Q4. What adaptation strategies have been adopted by smallholder farmers to address threats to agricultural practices and food security from climate change and other pressures? Both the qualitative and qualitative data were collected using multiple methods to address the identified research questions. Methods included a narrative literature review, systematic review, face to face interviews with farmers, individual interviews with key informants and focus groups with the women's group. Climate data on temperature between 1971-2013 and rainfall between 1967-2013 were analysed. Additionally, secondary data on crop yield from 1980 to 2016 were also analysed to gain a better empirical understanding of the relations between climate change and yield pattern and to triangulate and validate the findings from the interviews. Quantitative data on cereal crop yields and climate data were systematically tabulated and further statistically analysed using software R. This study employed the Bayesian approach to statistical modelling. Besides, this study undertook an integrated risk assessment of food insecurity using the Bayesian Belief Network model to reflect how the risk of food insecurity is influenced under two scenarios: (1) current climate conditions and (2) the influences of different adaptation strategies employed. NVivo was used for content analysis for qualitative data obtained from the key informant interview and focus group data and analysis of transcripts from farmers' structured interviews. The findings showed that agricultural practices have undergone various changes over the past 30 years. Climate change impacts were experienced by farmers in all three agro-ecological zones of Nepal. However, the impacts varied between these zones in terms of frequency and intensity. The effect of climate change was highly pronounced in the Mountains zone followed by the Hills and the Terai. The results confirmed that rural subsistence smallholder farmers dependent on rainfed agriculture are vulnerable to climate change impacts. Moreover, it disproportionately affects the poor farmers whose income hinges solely on agriculture and associated activities. Boosting agricultural production and empowering these smallholders is key to enhancing their food security. The experiences reported by farmers are well aligned with the trend of the climatic variables obtained from climate data analysis, highlighting the importance of perception-based survey in complementing climate research. The study demonstrated both the climatic and non-climatic factors are affecting agricultural practices as well as household food security of these farming communities. It is, therefore, difficult to isolate the influence of any of these factors. This was supported by the findings from the risk assessment undertaken by Bayesian modelling. Based on Bayesian modelling, the smallholder farmers mainly at the Mountain zone were at the risk of food insecurity. The measures to increase the adaptive capacity of these smallholders were found to help them manage the risk of food insecurity. Addressing the complicated and multifaceted concerns of climate change and food security needs multidisciplinary and multisectoral adaptation interventions acknowledging underlying biophysical, social, economic, geographical and environmental circumstances. Farmers have taken some actions to adapt and reduce the worsening impacts of climate change. Nevertheless, farmers encountered several barriers in effectively adapting to climate change. This study concluded there is an urgent need for a transformative level of intervention that warrants a coordinated action and collaboration between relevant stakeholders working in this field, including governments and non-governmental organizations, to target the most vulnerable and the needy smallholder farmers addressing the constraints and pressures they face. Policy and decision-makers should work extensively and sensitively with smallholders to ensure the maintenance of their livelihood and to guarantee their food security. Combining local and scientific knowledge is needed to help direct research and tailor adaptation solutions that meet local conditions and needs.

Climate Change is an ever growing issue with a great importance due to wide socio-economic effects. Agriculture is the most climate sensitive economic sector that is influenced both positively and negatively by climate change. A change in temperature or precipitation could cause a significant change in crops productivity and yields. Different crop/bio-physical experts have been making efforts to process the impact of climate on crop yields through different crop modellings using input from different global climate models. In this research, the output of the crop models is used as a shock in the global computable general equilibrium economic model to evaluate the economic effects of climate change. Pakistan has two crop seasons – Kharif and Rabi- therefore two major crops i.e. Wheat and Rice have been chosen for this analysis. A Baseline scenario, representing business as usual with no change in climate, has been created using projections for GDP, population, factor supplies, and required food production. A counterfactual experiment has done using the same GDP and population growth as in the baseline but with addition of crop yield shocks from bio-physical models. A comparison of these two experiments has shown the economic effects of climate change by 2035.