Conservation implications of ecological responses to extreme weather and climate events

Sean L Maxwell,Sarah Chapman,Martine Maron,Ailish Ullmann,Dan B Segan,Clive A Mcalpine,James E M Watson,Nathalie Butt

doi:10.1111/ddi.12878

Sean L Maxwell, Sarah Chapman + Show 6 more

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https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12878

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Abstract

AbstractAimMany conservation efforts now focus on mitigating biodiversity loss due to climate change. While a focus on impacts from mean, long‐term changes in climate is warranted, the vast majority of conservation plans largely ignore another key factor of climate change—changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events. A typology of the full range and severity of ecological responses to extreme events would help underpin tracking of their impacts.LocationGlobal.MethodsHere, we review 519 observational studies of ecological responses to extreme events between 1941 and 2015. We include responses from amphibians, birds, fish, invertebrates, mammals, plants and reptiles to cyclones, drought, flood, cold waves and heat waves.ResultsNegative ecological responses were the most commonly reported, accounting for 57% of all documented responses. There were over 100 cases of a >25% population decline and 31 cases of local extirpation. Sixty per cent of the studies in our review observed ecological responses for more than 1 year, and of the studies that monitored species or ecosystem recovery following exposure to an extreme event, 38% showed species or ecosystems did not recover to pre‐disturbance levels.Main conclusionsExtreme weather and climate events have profound implications for species and ecosystem management. We discuss current conceptual challenges associated with incorporating extreme events into conservation planning efforts, which include how to quantify species sensitivity and adaptive capacity to extreme events, how to account for interactions between extreme events and other stressors, and how to maximize adaptive capacity to more frequent and intense extreme events.

Highlights

Understanding what makes species and ecosystems vulnerable to climate change has become integral to the field of conservation science
Extreme weather and climate events (weather or climate events that are rare within their statistical reference distributions at a particular place (IPCC, 2014); “extreme events”), such as cyclones, floods, heat waves and drought, have become more frequent and intense in many regions of the world as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change (Seneviratne et al, 2012; Ummenhofer & Meehl, 2017)
Increases in daily temperature and precipitation extremes are likely to continue, more extreme rainfall is expected in southern Africa, increased drought intensity is expected in central America, north‐ east Brazil and the Mediterranean, and drought and heat waves are expected to become more frequent in Australia, northern Africa and south‐western America (Handmer et al, 2012; Pohl, Macron, & Monerie, 2017; Russo, Marchese, Sillmann, & Imme, 2016; Seneviratne et al, 2012)

Summary

Introduction

Understanding what makes species and ecosystems vulnerable to climate change has become integral to the field of conservation science. Climate change vulnerability assessments have predominantly focused on how species and ecosystems will respond to mean, long‐term changes in climate (Chapman et al, 2014; Jones, Watson, Possingham, & Klein, 2016), including regional warming (van Gils et al, 2016), seasonal shifts (Asch, 2015) and sea level rise (Runting, Wilson, & Rhodes, 2013) This focus has improved our overall understanding of how climate change is shaping the environment (Scheffers et al, 2016) but has left many conservation plans unprepared for changes in the frequency and distribution of extreme weather and climate events (Chapman et al, 2014; Jones et al, 2016). Increases in daily temperature and precipitation extremes are likely to continue, more extreme rainfall is expected in southern Africa, increased drought intensity is expected in central America, north‐ east Brazil and the Mediterranean, and drought and heat waves are expected to become more frequent in Australia, northern Africa and south‐western America (Handmer et al, 2012; Pohl, Macron, & Monerie, 2017; Russo, Marchese, Sillmann, & Imme, 2016; Seneviratne et al, 2012)

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