Chapter 3 - Advances in weather and climate extremes

Abstract

Extreme precipitation and temperature events have gained global attention owing to their widespread profound impacts on both human society and the natural environment. Arguably, the investigation of extreme events and their relation to climate change and variability is one of the most challenging areas in climate research. The scientific challenges are multidisciplinary and require improved statistical analysis tools, advanced process understanding, and extensive assessment of the societal and ecosystem impacts of extreme events. Considering the complexity of the task, the World Climate Research Programme chooses “understanding and predicting weather and climate extremes” as one of the “grand challenges.” This chapter discusses in fair terms the progress made toward understanding and predicting weather and climate extremes. This progress includes improved observational products for underpinning the assessment of extremes, enhanced understanding of processes associated with the formation of extremes, simulation of extremes in climate models, and the prediction as well as the possible attribution of extreme events to anthropogenic climate forcing. Nonetheless, these efforts provide compelling scientific evidence that demonstrates the widespread and rapid increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events. Process-based understanding of the mechanisms associated with the changes in the extremes links global warming to the increasing severity of extreme events. Scientists recommend a significant reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to reduce the severity of extreme events in the future. Despite the advances in weather and climate extremes, a lot of work is needed for the near-term prediction of extreme events. Interestingly, innovations in artificial intelligence bring new frontiers that can improve near-term predictions of extreme weather and climate events.