Comparison of the performances of GEP, ANFIS, and SVM artifical intelligence models in rainfall simulaton

Abstract

In this paper, evaluation the performances of GEP (gene expression programming), ANFIS (adaptive fuzzy interference system), and SVM (support vector machine) artificial intelligence models in two scales of daily and monthly rainfall data from Urmia meteorological station (Iran) and monthly rainfall data from Diata meteorological station (India) was used in rainfall simulation. The correlation coefficient of observed and simulated values was evaluated by the R2 criterion, simulation error was evaluated by the root mean square error (RMSE), and MB criteria and model efficiency were evaluated by the Nash-Sutcliffe method. The results show that the correlation coefficients in the GEP model based on daily data from Urmia station and monthly data from Diata station are 23 and 58%, respectively, and R2 in simulation with GEP is estimated to be 55% lower than with the other two models. The R2 range in both ANFIS and SVM models varies from 91 to 93%. On average, the RMSE values in the GEP simulation are 50% and 55% higher than the ANFIS ratio for daily and monthly data at the two stations, respectively, and the RMSE values of ANFIS model are 1% and 3% higher than those of the SVM at Urmia and Diata stations, respectively. The bias values of the GEP model are 72% and 60% higher than those of ANFIS at Urmia and Diata stations, respectively. The GEP efficiency factors are 56% and 61% lower than those of ANFIS at Urmia and Diata stations, respectively. And the ANFIS efficiency ratio is 1 and 2% lower than SVM in Urmia and Diata stations, respectively. Therefore, rainfall simulation with the SVM model is associated with a lower error rate and better efficiency, the ANFIS model is close to the efficiency of SVM, and the GEP model is not suitable for rainfall simulation.