پیش بینی جریان رودخانه با محاسبات نرم

Abstract

Forecasts of streamflows are required for many activities associated with the planning and operation of components in a water resource system. This paper demonstrates the application of two different intelligent approaches including adaptive neuro-fuzzy (ANFIS) based on grid partition and Gene Expression Programming (GEP) for the prediction of monthly streamflows. In the first part of the study, ANFIS and GEP models were used in one-month ahead streamflow forecasting and the results were evaluated. Monthly run-off data of 21 years from two stations, the Safakhaneh Station on the Sarough-Chay Stream and the Senteh Station on the Kherkherh-Chay Stream in the Zarrineh-rud Basin of Iran were used in the study. The effect of periodicity on the model’s forecasting performance was also investigated. By application of periodicity coefficient in GEP model, determination coefficient in the case of the best input combination for Safakhaneh and Senteh increased 0.19 and 0.25, respectively. In the second part of the study, the performance of the ANFIS and GEP techniques was tested for streamflow estimation using data from the nearby river. The results indicated that the GEP and ANFIS models could be employed successfully in forecasting streamflow. In this case, for the best input combination, root mean square error (RMSE) for ANFIS and GEP obtained equal to 4.88 and 4.89 respectively. However, GEP is superior to ANFIS in giving explicit expressions for the problem.