Abstract

Emerging literature highlights the essential role played by decarbonised electricity generation in future energy systems consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement. This analysis compares the impacts of high levels of renewable electricity and negative emissions technologies on exploratory visions of the future EU power system (2050) in terms of emissions reduction, technical operation and total system costs. The analysis shows that high renewable power system scenarios coupled with low levels of negative emissions technologies, such as biomass carbon capture and storage (< 2% of installed capacity), can deliver a net-negative European power system at lower comparable cost without breaching published sustainable biomass potentials in Europe (or requiring imports) or geological storage potentials while also contributing to power system inertia. Direct air capture has the capability to further decrease overall carbon emissions. While carbon capture and storage and power-to-gas must overcome market, regulatory and social acceptance challenges, given their potential benefits to emissions reduction, costs and system operation their role in a future power system should be further explored.

Highlights

  • Decarbonising electricity generation is a key element in achieving the Paris Climate Agreement [1] for limiting average global temperature rise to ‘well below 2°C’ above pre-industrial levels

  • The focus is on the facilitation of carbon-neutral generation, the impact of Negative emissions technology (NET) on system carbon intensity, operational characteristics of the power system and the challenges associated with changing portfolios and the economics

  • Decarbonisation scenarios Decarbonisation portfolios and scenarios are developed using exploratory pathways stemming from the European Commission and the International Energy Agency

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Summary

Introduction

Decarbonising electricity generation is a key element in achieving the Paris Climate Agreement [1] for limiting average global temperature rise to ‘well below 2°C’ above pre-industrial levels. Pursiheimo, Holttinen [6] use time slices to analyse the effects of high renewable energy shares in the global energy system. Both examples identify the lack of high temporal resolution modelling as potential weaknesses in their methodologies; a view closely aligned with key findings from Bogdanov, Farfan [7] when analysing transition pathways to sustainable global energy systems. The concept of using typical sample days or representative time slices to provide a robust analysis of power (or energy) systems may have become outdated with the advent of variable generation resources representing a significant share of future systems. Less analysis has focused on comparing these high variable renewable futures with negative emission power system scenarios

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