China’s energy revolution strategy into 2030

Abstract

The Chinese Government just released its Energy Revolution Strategy (2016–2030) as an official policy response to President Xi Jinping’s urge. Withdraw of the US from Paris Climate Agreement has turned the global focus on if China can comply with its climate change commitments. The purpose of this paper is to conduct a comprehensive assessment on this utterly important question. We find that the 2030 Strategy is consistent with the GDP CO2 intensity target but cannot deliver CO2 peak earlier than 2030. We also explore the possibility for China to realize leapfrog in energy efficiency and contribute more to global society in CO2 emissions abatement. Given China’s economic restructuring potential, continuous efforts in energy efficiency could lead to much lower primary energy demand than the Strategy proposed and thus peak energy-related CO2 emissions around 2020. It can also make China a new champion in the world with highest energy efficiency level at comparable income level during the economic development process. A much lower primary energy demand can also facilitate China’s non-fossil primary energy share target and the low-carbon power system transition.