Analysis of CO2emissions peak: China’s objective and strategy

Abstract

Establishing positive and urgent targets for CO2 reduction and emission peak, and promoting energy conservation and energy structure adjustment are among the strategies to address global climate change and CO2 emissions reduction. They are also means to break through the constraints of domestic resources and environment, and internal needs, to achieve sustainable development. Generally speaking, a country's CO2 emission peak appears after achieving urbanization and industrialization. By then, connotative economic growth will appear, GDP will grow slowly, energy consumption elasticity will decrease, and energy consumption growth will slow down – dependent mainly on new and renewable energies. Fossil fuel consumption will not increase further. When CO2 emission reaches its peak, the annual reduction rate of CO2 intensity of GDP is greater than GDP annual growth rate; and the annual reduction rate of CO2 intensity of energy use is greater than the annual growth rate of energy consumption. Therefore, three important approaches to promotion of CO2 emission peak can be concluded: maintaining reasonable control of GDP growth, strengthening energy conservation to significantly reduce the GDP energy intensity, and optimizing the energy mix to reduce the CO2 intensity of energy use. By around 2030, China will basically have completed its rapid development phase of industrialization and urbanization. Connotative economic growth will appear with the acceleration of industrial structure adjustment. The target of GDP energy intensity will still be to maintain an average annual reduction of 3% or higher. The proportion of non-fossil fuels will reach 20–25%, and the aim will be to maintain an average annual growth rate of 6–8%. The total annual energy demand growth of 1.5% will be satisfied by the newly increased supply of non-fossil fuels. The annual decline in CO2 intensity of GDP will reach 4.5% or higher, which is compatible with an average annual GDP growth rate of approximately 4.5% in order to reach CO2 emission peak. This corresponds to the level of China's potential economic growth. Achieving CO2 emission peak will not impose a rigid constraint on economic development, but rather promote economic development and accelerate the transformation of green, low-carbon development. The CO2 emission peak can be controlled with a cap of 11 billion tons, which means that CO2 emission will increase by less than 50% compared with 2010. The per capita emission peak will be controlled at a level of less than 8 tons, which is lower than the 9.5 tons in the EU and Japan and much lower than the 20 tons in the US, future economic and social development faces many uncertainties in achieving the CO2 emission peak discussed above. It depends on current and future strategies and policies, as well as the pace and strength of economic transformation, innovation, and new energy technologies. If the economic transformation pattern fails to meet expectations, the time required to reach CO2 emission peak would be delayed and the peak level would be higher than expected. Therefore, we need to coordinate thoughts and ideas and deploy these in advance; to highlight the strategic position of low-carbon development and its priorities; to enact mid- to long-term energy development strategies; and to establish and improve a system of laws, regulations, and policies as well as an implementation mechanism for green, low-carbon development. Oriented by positive and urgent CO2 reduction and peak targets, the government would form a reversed mechanism to promote economic transformation and embark on the path of green, low-carbon development as soon as possible.