Energy-related CO2 emission peaking target and pathways for China's city: A case study of Baoding City

Abstract

The prediction of CO2 emissions peak and its time for Baoding, which is one of the first pilot cities of “China's low-carbon city development project”, is important for other cities to formulate low-carbon policies. This study first analyzes the main influencing factors of Baoding's emissions, and then predicts its CO2 emissions peak and its time under different scenarios. Results show that (1) CO2 emissions from industrial production account for more than 80% of the total emissions, and those from six energy-consuming industries account for more than 40% of the total emissions in the city. (2) Economic growth has significantly contributed to the growth of CO2 emissions, whereas industrial structure and population growth have little contributions; energy intensity is the main negative factor for emissions growth, whereas the inhibiting effect of energy structure is not evident. (3)Based on the back propagation (BP) model, the city's CO2 emissions peak will be 59.74 million tons in 2024 under the low-speed and low-carbon scenario; under the moderate-speed and benchmark scenario, it will continue to grow and reach 63.06 million tons in 2040; under high-speed and high-carbon scenario, the city's CO2 emissions will reach 80.18 million tons in 2040. This study provides a reference and experience for other cities in developing strategies to achieve the carbon emission peak, which has important practical significance for China to achieve peak carbon emissions as soon as possible.