Abstract
Hydrogen-based steelmaking is a promising technology for industrial decarbonization. Relocating partial industrial processes to areas with abundant renewable energy and raw materials could be a viable solution for cost reduction. However, the underlying uncertainty is not clear and obscures both policy makers' and steel suppliers’ decisions. In this study, we developed a simple, open-access, techno-economic model and applied it to the case of Japan and Australia to evaluate policy proposals. Then, we further investigated the uncertainty in the levelized cost of steel (LCOS) due to various factors by Monte Carlo analysis. Results show that, under many possible combinations, the relocation strategies showed a higher probability of being more cost competitive. However, full relocation did not significantly outperform partial relocation. Clean electricity costs and electrolyzer efficiency are dominant factors affecting the uncertainty of LCOS. The results provide insights for policy makers and stakeholders to consider when developing future preferable decarbonization roadmap.
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