Ensuring China's food security in a geographical shift of its grain production: Driving factors, threats, and solutions

Abstract

Grain production in China has increased over time despite limited access to natural resources. However, this has led to China's grain supply system becoming increasingly vulnerable and unsustainable due to a northward shift of its grain production. Here, we establish a framework to guide future grain policy formulation in response to previous practices and lessons learned from China's past grain production. This framework integrated the spatial gravity model, spatial mismatch index, logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI), and Monte Carlo simulation to identify the key drivers behind grain growth, analyze their impacts on food security, and propose countermeasures. We found that grain production increase in China is not universally attributable to increased input of farmland and water resources, but rather, socio-economic factors including agricultural technology and irrigation facilities have improved efficiency. The spatial heterogeneity in their driving effects in different major grain producing regions has led grain production to shifted to the northern regions that have few natural resources, posing new challenges for food security: without new policies, China will not be poised to meet increased grain demand projected from 2025 to 2030, especially for rice and soybeans. From a comparison across four grain policies, it is found that region-specific policies will most effectively accelerate transitions to sustainable food production systems. We urge decision-makers to reach beyond natural resource inputs and focus on socio-economic factors, particularly inputs for replanting abandoned farmland and irrigation facilities that can ensure food security in the future.