Chapter 8 - Overview of Solar-Forecasting Methods and a Metric for Accuracy Evaluation

Abstract

This chapter provides an introduction to and overview of the subsequent chapters, which discuss specific solar-forecasting technologies and time horizons. Solar-forecasting methods are classified by technique, time horizon, and application. Advantages and disadvantages of deterministic and stochastic forecasting approaches are laid out and discussed in the context of solar forecasting based on numerical weather prediction, satellite data, and ground measurements. Metrics to evaluate solar-forecasting techniques are then presented and a time horizon–invariant metric is introduced that allows comparing forecast errors across time horizons, geographical regions, and time steps. Finally, the metric is demonstrated with hour-ahead forecasts based on stochastic-learning and satellite cloud-motion vector techniques.