A review of solar forecasting, its dependence on atmospheric sciences and implications for grid integration: Towards carbon neutrality

Abstract

The ability to forecast solar irradiance plays an indispensable role in solar power forecasting, which constitutes an essential step in planning and operating power systems under high penetration of solar power generation. Since solar radiation is an atmospheric process, solar irradiance forecasting, and thus solar power forecasting, can benefit from the participation of atmospheric scientists. In this review, the two fields, namely, atmospheric science and power system engineering are jointly discussed with respect to how solar forecasting plays a part. Firstly, the state of affairs in solar forecasting is elaborated; some common misconceptions are clarified; and salient features of solar irradiance are explained. Next, five technical aspects of solar forecasting: (1) base forecasting methods, (2) post-processing, (3) irradiance-to-power conversion, (4) verification, and (5) grid-side implications, are reviewed. Following that, ten potential research topics for atmospheric scientists are enumerated; they are related to (1) data and tools, (2) numerical weather prediction, (3) forecast downscaling, (4) large eddy simulation, (5) dimming and brightening, (6) aerosols, (7) spatial forecast verification, (8) multivariate probabilistic forecast verification, (9) predictability, and (10) extreme weather events. Last but not least, a pathway towards ultra-high PV penetration is laid out, based on two recently proposed concepts of firm generation and firm forecasting. It is concluded that the collaboration between the atmospheric science community and power engineering community is necessary if we are to further increase the solar penetration while maintaining the stability and reliability of the power grid, and to achieve carbon neutrality in the long run.