Chapter 4 - Upscaling the Impacts of Climate Change in Different Sectors and Adaptation Strategies

Abstract

This chapter aims to provide up-to-date quantitative estimates of the costs and benefits related to adaptation strategies for different sectors in Europe. This is done by critically evaluating modeling frameworks and contexts applied to adaptation and by describing new developments achieved in sectoral assessment models (water, agriculture, ecosystems, and health). Robust methodologies have been applied to deal with uncertainty and an advanced discussion is included on the challenges learnt to better address the upscaling issue from bottom-up adaptation processes. Costs and benefits are explored with respect to present and future climate scenarios, different socioeconomic development pathways and different adaptation strategies. In all models, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 (“middle of the road”), 3 (“fragmented world”), and 5 (“market-driven development”) are considered for comparative assessment as well as the climate scenarios according to remote concentration pathway 4.5 (average climate change) and 8.5 (high climate change) at 2050 (also see Chapter 2: Storylines and Pathways for Adaptation in Europe).