Abstract
Climate action is goal 13 of UN’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Future impacts of climate change depend on climatic changes, the level of climate change policy, both mitigation and adaptation, and socio-economic status and development pathways. To investigate the climate change policy impact of socio-economic development pathways, we develop three pathways. Climate change affects socio-economic development in many ways. We interpret global storylines into South Korean contexts: Shared Socio-economic Pathway 1 (SSP1), SSP2, and SSP3 for population, economy, and land use. SSP elements and proxies were identified and elaborated through stakeholder participatory workshops, demand survey on potential users, past trends, and recent national projections of major proxies. Twenty-nine proxies were quantified using sector-specific models and downscaled where possible. Socio-economic and climate scenarios matrixes enable one to quantify the contribution of climate, population, economic development, and land-use change in future climate change impacts. Economic damage between climate scenarios is different in SSPs, and it highlights that SSPs are one of the key components for future climate change impacts. Achieving SDGs generates additional incentives for local and national governments as it can reduce mitigation and adaptation policy burden.
Highlights
Policy decisions are made against a long-term complex climate change problem that is inherently uncertain
We developed three SSPs (SSP1: low carbon adaptation-ready society; SSP2: business as usual; SSP3: high carbon adaptation-unready society) at the sub-national level in a quantitative way for the population, economy, and land use in Korea
PAGE, an integrated assessment model that estimates the cost of mitigation and adaptation policies and the impacts of climate change [60], was used to analyze the economic impacts of climate change for the matrix of climate scenarios (RCP: Representative Concentration Pathways) and SSPs
Summary
Policy decisions are made against a long-term complex climate change problem that is inherently uncertain. Global climate change communities have developed a scenario framework to analyze future impacts and policies [1,2]. The levels of current and future climate change impacts, vulnerabilities, and risks depend on climatic conditions and on socio-economic conditions, including population, economy, technological development, and policy level [19]. The global research community has developed Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), which provide a flexible framework for local scenario development and can be used in adaptation and vulnerability studies [33,34,35,36,37]. Climate change policy decision-making, especially for adaptation, must consider the socio-economic context at the national and sub-national levels. Socio-economic scenarios could allow policymakers to better understand the importance of development pathways for climate change damage
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