Development of Polar Lows in Future Climate Scenarios over the Barents Sea

Abstract

Abstract Polar lows (PLs) are intense mesoscale cyclones that form over polar oceans during colder months. Characterized by high wind speeds and heavy precipitation, they profoundly impact coastal communities, shipping, and offshore activities. Amid the substantial environmental changes in polar regions due to global warming, PLs are expected to undergo noteworthy transformations. In this study, we investigate the response of PL development in the Barents Sea to climate warming based on two representative PLs. Sensitivity experiments were conducted including the PLs in the present climate and the PLs in a pseudo–global warming scenario projected by the late twenty-first century for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5 and SSP 3-7.0 scenarios from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In both warming climate scenarios, there is an anticipated decrease in PL intensity, in terms of the maximum surface wind speed and minimum sea level pressure. Despite the foreseen increase in latent heat release in the future climate, contributing to the enhancement of PL intensity, other primary factors such as decreased baroclinic instability, heightened atmospheric static stability, and reduced overall surface heat fluxes play pivotal roles in the overall decrease in PL intensity in the Barents Sea under warming conditions. The augmentation of surface latent heat flux, however, results in increased precipitation associated with PLs by enhancing the latent heat release. Furthermore, the regional steering flow shifts in the warming climate can influence the trajectory of PLs during their development. Significance Statement Global warming is anticipated to impact cyclone systems worldwide. Polar lows (PLs), intense mesocyclones in polar regions with potential socioeconomic and human life implications, pose uncertainties regarding intensity changes in a warming climate. In this study, we aimed to better understand how PLs over the Barents Sea will respond to the environmental changes in future climate conditions [Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5 and SSP 3-7.0] by the end of the twenty-first century. Our results find that the intensity of PLs is expected to decrease in the future while there is an expected increase in precipitation associated with PLs in the warming climate. These findings aim to contribute valuable insights for disaster management strategies in the face of evolving climate scenarios.