Abstract
Flipping a coin gives a 0.5 probability of heads. If one flips a coin twice, the probability that both times it will turn up heads is 0.5×0.5—0.25, and if done three and four times it goes to 0.125 and 0.0625, respectively, by chance alone. At about 80 years of age a man has a roughly 50% chance of having had a cancer, and if there are four men aged 80 in the average block, then in about 6.25% of such blocks (one in every 16), all four older men are likely to each have had a cancer, by chance alone.
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