Chapter 10 - Proliferation Prediction: A Review of Current Models/Tools

Abstract

In this chapter, we will review a variety of analytical tools that have been developed during the last two decades to try to predict proliferation at an early stage. Some of these tools help to identify a technical path to proliferation based on the nuclear materials and technology available to the country. Others help elucidate the intent of a country's leader or leadership. Many do both. But there is a key factor these tools must also address, the audience. The audience for proliferation prediction is the policy-maker community that will intervene to try to prevent proliferation identified through the model. Therefore, the tool must add to/enhance what the policy makers know and be reliable enough for them to use to confront another country's leadership.