Chapter 1 - Global Nuclear Arsenals, 1990–2018

Abstract

This chapter assesses the global status of nuclear arsenals by summarizing the current capabilities, strategies, and force structure plans of all states possessing nuclear weapons. Several trends are evident. The four main nuclear competitors of the Cold War—Britain, France, Russia, and the United States—have greatly reduced the size of their Cold War nuclear arsenals over the past three decades. However, the pace of these reductions has slowed and, in some cases, concluded. These nations, along with the five others possessing nuclear weapons (China, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea), are all modernizing their forces and intend to maintain them for the next 30–40years, if not through the end of the century. They are placing increasing emphasis on the role that nuclear weapons play in their national strategies and adding new types of weapons to their arsenals. Most disconcertingly, they are discussing the role of nuclear weapons in a way that appears to borrow from the Cold War playbook that increases reliance on tactical and low-yield nuclear weapons in limited regional scenarios, a move that increases the chance of nuclear war.