Changing Climatic Factors Favor Dengue Transmission in Lahore, Pakistan

Syed Ali Asad Naqvi,Liaqat Ali Waseem,Saima Shaikh,Nasir Abbas,Muhammad Nasar-U-Minallah,Bulbul Jan,Syed Jamil Hasan Kazmi

doi:10.3390/environments6060071

Abstract

Dengue fever (DF) is a national health problem in Pakistan. It has become endemic in Lahore after its recent reemergence in 2016. This study investigates the impacts of climatic factors (temperature and rainfall) on DF transmission in the district of Lahore through statistical approaches. Initially, the climatic variability was explored using a time series analysis on climatic factors from 1970 to 2012. Furthermore, ordinary and multiple linear regression analyses were used to measure the simulating effect of climatic factors on dengue incidence from 2007 to 2012. The time series analysis revealed significant annual and monthly variability in climatic factors, which shaped a dengue-supporting environment. It also showed a positive temporal relationship between climatic factors and DF. Moreover, the regression analyses revealed a substantial monthly relationship between climatic factors and dengue incidence. The ordinary linear regression of rainfall versus dengue showed monthly R2 = 34.2%, whereas temperature versus dengue presented R2 = 38.0%. The multiple regression analysis showed a monthly significance of R2 = 44.6%. Consequently, our study shows a substantial synergism between dengue and climatic factors in Lahore. The present study could help in unveiling new ways for health prediction modeling of dengue and might be applicable in other subtropical and temperate climates.

Highlights

Dengue fever (DF) is a viral disease that has become a major public health problem owing to a substantial rise in the incidence across the globe during the last couple of decades [1,2]
Dengue virus (DENV) belongs to the genus Flavivirus, having four serotypes ranging from DEN 1 to 4, responsible for causing DF, dengue shock syndrome, and dengue hemorrhagic fever [7]
Both temporal plots showconditions a significant the highest temporal plots show a significant from year to year and month to over month. These findings suggest that climatic conditions of Lahore have

Summary

Introduction

Dengue fever (DF) is a viral disease that has become a major public health problem owing to a substantial rise in the incidence across the globe during the last couple of decades [1,2]. Dengue virus (DENV) is primarily transmitted by a female mosquito Aedes aegypti [6]. DENV belongs to the genus Flavivirus, having four serotypes ranging from DEN 1 to 4, responsible for causing DF, dengue shock syndrome, and dengue hemorrhagic fever [7]. A vaccine (Dengvaxia (CYD-TDV) by Sanofi Pasteur) for dengue prevention was tested and registered in various countries, but the WHO considered it risky for seronegative individuals [8,9,10]. Due to the unsafe vaccine, prevention and controlling plans are the only considerable options to limit dengue

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Discussion

Conclusion