Role of climatic factors in the incidence of dengue in Port Sudan City, Sudan.

Abstract

Dengue fever outbreaks have occurred in Port Sudan City, Sudan, during the last 2 decades. Climatic factors may play a role in dengue incidence. This study aimed at discribing the relationship between climatic factors and dengue fever incidence in Port Sudan during 2008-2013. This ecological study entailed secondary data analysis of dengue fever cases and climate information to explore which climatic factors predict the incidence of dengue fever. The Wilcoxon rank sum test and multiple linear regression examined the association between number of dengue fever cases and climatic factors during lag times of 1-6 months. Relative humidity and maximum and minimum temperatures were correlated with dengue incidence in Port Sudan at different time intervals during 2008-2010. Precipitation and relative humidity were correlated with dengue fever during 2011-2013. However, 3-5-month lagged relative humidity was the strongest explanatory variable for the incidence of dengue. Dengue transmission appears sensitive to climatic variability. Elucidating the role of climatic factors in dengue fever helps in risk assessment and prevention of epidemics.