Changes in productivity of agrolandscapes in the south of Eastern Europe during 1982‒2006

Abstract

For the last three decades the entire post-Soviet space saw a cardinal transformation of the land-use structure associated with the transition from a planned to a market economy. These changes influenced the productivity dynamics of agricultural lands. On the other hand, global warming became one further factor influencing crop yield. The primary objective of this study is to assess the possible role of each of these two factors, based on analyzing the trends of biological productivity of agroecosystems for three periods which stand out prominently as regards the priorities of the agricultural policy and characteristics of climatic conditions (the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s). Time series of NDVI GIMMS values, obtained from NOAA AVHRR low-resolution data, were used as the input data in analyzing productivity changes for agrolandscapes in the south of the European part of Russia, Ukraine and Moldova. Analysis of the landscape bioproductivity dynamics for the steppe and forest-steppe zones shows an unambiguous positive trend for the period of the 1980s characterized by stable weather conditions, and by the attraction of large investments in the agrarian sector. An unambiguous negative trend was revealed for the 1990s when all Soviet republics were experiencing a profound economic crisis, combined with extremely unfavorable weather conditions. In the early 21st century, remote sensing data did not show any clear directedness of formlands biological productivity trends. The results obtained are contradictory to the well-established view of a rapid recovery of production potentials in agriculture in countries of Eastern Europe at that period.