Carbon emission potential of new energy vehicles under different electricity structures.

Abstract

New energy vehicles have a significant impact on reducing green house gas (GHG) emissions in the transportation sector, but the ability of new energy vehicles to reduce emissions under various development scenarios and electricity energy mix needs to be studied in depth. In this research, a GRA-BiLSTM model is constructed to predict the ownership of new energy vehicles by three scenario settings. Then, the structure of the future energy generation is forecast using a regression model. Finally, the carbon emissions under different energy structures are quantified and compared based on the prediction results, focusing on their carbon emission effects. The results show that in 2035, under three different development scenarios, the new energy vehicle ownership will reach 5711, 18122.76, and 218.93 million units, and the carbon emissions will be 60.897 billion kg, 193.246 billion kg, and 233.451 billion kg, respectively, based on the future energy development structure, accounting for 86% of the carbon emissions from the existing power generation structure. The carbon emission potential of new energy vehicles depends to a large extent on the future scenario of the power generation mix as well as the market for new energy vehicle ownership.