Carbon Emissions Change and Key Factors of Promoting New Energy Vehicles in Transit System in Guangdong

Abstract

Transportation is a key industry in urban energy consumption, air pollutant emissions and greenhouse gas emissions, which has a significant impact on air quality and climate change. The number of motor vehicles in Guangdong province continues to grow, with more than 18 million at the end of 2017. Under the dual pressure of energy and environmental protection, new energy vehicles, as an important carrier of “low-carbon economy”, have become the development direction of cars in Guangdong province. The Guangdong government adopts the B2B model to introduce new energy vehicles from the public transportation. In 2017, Guangdong province had 63,391 buses, of which new energy vehicles accounted for 46.2%. This study takes the implementation of new energy vehicles in the public transport system of Guangdong province as the research object, and the energy consumption of new energy vehicles and traditional vehicles were compared. Based on the CDM methodology, the changes in carbon emissions caused by the introduction of new energy vehicles in the transit system were calculated. Carbon emissions in 2020 were estimated according to the number of public buses in Guangdong province and the new energy bus planning. From 2016 to 2020, EV (electric vehicles) accounted for 63-79% of new energy vehicles in buses of Guangdong province, and HEV (hybrid electric vehicles), mainly natural gas and electric hybrid, accounted for 13-16% of the total buses. The total carbon emission of buses in 2020 was reduced by 44.6% compared with 2016, of which EV contributed the most to the emission reduction. In this study, different scenarios are set up to analyze the influence of power generation energy structure and vehicle fuel type on greenhouse gas emission reduction. It is found that power grid energy structure is a key factor affecting the carbon emission and emission reduction space of electric vehicles. The fuel type of vehicle directly affects the emission coefficient of CO2 per unit fuel, and plays an important role in carbon emission reduction.