Can domestic wheat farming meet the climate change-induced challenges of national food security in Uzbekistan?

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ABSTRACT This study is the first to develop food supply and demand projections over the 21st century for Uzbekistan by considering the combined effects of climate change and soil salinization. The study results suggest that rising summer temperatures and soil salinity will considerably reduce wheat production. Projections indicate that a large wheat supply–demand gap will emerge in the midterm, particularly under the SSP3-RCP7.0 scenario. For the two more pessimistic scenarios, supply losses of about 24–29% are expected by the end of the century. Supply–demand gaps of up to 2.7 million tons of wheat would pose serious challenges to national food security.