Can China achieve ecological sustainability? An LMDI analysis of ecological footprint and economic development decoupling

Abstract

Nowadays, economic development and ecological environment protection are difficult to synergize, which poses a challenge to global sustainable development. This paper uses the Tapio decoupling model to evaluate the decoupling between ecological footprint and economic growth, and uses the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition methods to identify the driving factors of decoupling at national and provincial levels. There are four driving factors: industrial structural, technological innovation, economic development, and population size. It is found that: (1) The ecological footprint of 28 provinces show an upward trend, with an average increase of 40.26%. Among them, the ecological footprint of three provinces in the northwest region increased by more than 100%, and there is an urgent need to reduce natural resource consumption and ensure resource sustainability; (2) The number of provinces with good decoupling show a change of first declining and then rising. Moreover, the spatial distribution characteristics of the decoupling state are obvious, with the northeastern region in negative decoupling; and (3) Technological innovation plays a positive and leading role in decoupling, with a contribution rate of 0.5402. However, economic development inhibits decoupling, with a contribution rate of 0.3829. According to the results, this paper suggests countermeasures and approaches to promote the decoupling of ecological footprint and economic growth, and establishes three key regional concerns. It provides a basis for further analysis of environmental governance in China. Not only that, the regulatory measures and methods proposed in this study will also help promote the decoupling process of other developing countries in the world.