Investigation to the Driving Factors of the Increase in the Carbon Emission of Chinese Transportation Based on Principal Component Analysis and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Decomposition Method

Abstract

This paper selects driving factors with high contribution rate for carbon emission using Principal Component Analysis and regroups these factors. Then, based on the Method of Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) Decomposition, it obtains and analyses the contribution rates of ten driving factors of the carbon emission of China’s transportation sector. Our study indicates that: (1) from 1996 to 2008, the number of cars per capita, GDP per capita, the volume of fright and the proportion of urban population are positive drivers of the increase in the carbon emission of China’s transportation sector, and the number of cars per capita is the key one; (2) the negative drivers are energy intensity and degree of traffic congestion, so public transport priority, population control and longer transportation routes can lessen the CO2 emission of transportation; (3) an adjusted fuel structure with higher diesel occupation, keeping the transportation industry consistent with the growth of national economy and more efficient freight transportation may decrease CO2 emission.