Bootstrapped-ensemble-based Sensitivity Analysis of a trace thermal-hydraulic model based on a limited number of PWR large break loca simulations

Abstract

The safety verification of nuclear systems can be done by analyzing the outputs of Best-Estimate Thermal-Hydraulic (BE-TH) codes, which allow predicting the system response under safe and accidental conditions with greater realism as compared to conservative TH codes. In this case, it is necessary to quantify and control the uncertainties in the analysis, which affect the estimated safety margins. This can be achieved by Sensitivity Analysis (SA) and Uncertainty Analysis (UA) techniques tailored to handle the large computational costs of TH codes. This work presents an Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis (EBSA) based on Finite Mixture Model (FMM) as an effective solution to keep low the code runs and handle the uncertainty in the SA methods. The approach proposed is challenged against a situation of a very low number of code runs: the Bootstrap method is, then, used in support. Three different strategies based on EBSA and Bootstrap are set forth (i.e., bottom-up, all-out and filter strategies). An application is provided with respect to a Large Break Loss of Coolant Accident (LBLOCA) simulated by a TRACE model of the Zion 1 Nuclear Power Plant (NPP).