Optimization of sensitivity analysis in best estimate plus uncertainty and the application to large break LOCA of a three-loop pressurized water reactor

Abstract

The best estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) methodology is developed to carry out realistic safety analysis of the nuclear power plant. However, the sensitivity analysis in the conventional methodologies often leads to inaccurate results when lacking of the phenomenon identification and ranking table (PIRT) or adopting the local sensitivity analysis methods. As the initial inputs determined in short of the PIRT may neglect some important parameters or identify some unimportant parameters, and the local methods are not appropriate for complex and non-linear systems. In this study, an optimized moment-independent global sensitivity analysis method with very low computational cost was utilized to improve the sensitivity analysis framework of the BEPU methodology. The reliability as well as the applicability of the method were assessed through some tests and a large break loss of coolant accident (LBLOCA) of the LOFT facility. The improved sensitivity analysis framework was then applied to the BEPU analysis of a typical three-loop pressurized water reactor CPR1000, and the reliability of the optimized moment-independent method was further confirmed by comparing the sensitivity analysis result of the method to the results of the BEMUSE project and the Spearman method. Besides, two new parameters were identified to have great influence on the PCT, and the two parameters should be taken into consideration in the uncertainty analysis of the BEPU methodology.