Biofuels in aviation: Fuel demand and CO2 emissions evolution in Europe toward 2030

Abstract

This article presents the results of a scenario-based study carried out at the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre aimed at analyzing the future growth of aviation, the resulting fuel demand and the deployment of biofuels in the aviation sector in Europe. Three scenarios have been produced based on different input assumptions and leading to different underlying patterns of growth and resulting volumes of traffic. Data for aviation growth and hence fuel demand have been projected on a year by year basis up to 2030, using 2010 as the baseline. Data sources are Eurostat statistics and actual flight information from EUROCONTROL. Relevant variables such as the number of flights, the type of aircrafts, passengers or cargo tonnes and production indicators (RPKs) are used together with fuel consumption and CO2 emissions data. The target of the European Advanced Biofuels Flightpath to ensure the commercialization and consumption of 2milliontons of sustainably produced paraffinic biofuels in the aviation sector by 2020, has also been taken into account. Results regarding CO2 emission projections to 2030, reveal a steady annual increase in the order of 3%, 1% and 4% on average, for the three different scenarios, providing also a good correlation compared to the annual traffic growth rates that are indicated in the three corresponding scenarios. In absolute values, these ratios correspond to the central, the pessimistic and the optimistic scenarios respectively, corresponding to 360milliontonnes CO2 emissions in 2030, ranging from 271 to 401milliontonnes for the pessimistic and optimistic scenarios, respectively. This article also reports on the supply potential of aviation biofuels (clustered in HEFA/HVOs and biojet) based on the production capacity of facilities around the world and provides an insight on the current and future trends in aviation based on the European and national policies, innovations and state-of-the art technologies that will influence the future of sustainable fuels in aviation.