Application of mathematical and statistical methods to the problem of resource management in agricultural production, taking into account uncertainty and risk

Abstract

The agricultural sphere of production has always been accompanied by the influence of a wide range of factors, among which a large share is assigned to natural and climatic. The activities of agricultural organizations, especially in the field of crop production, are directly related to weather events, and in addition, a number of unstable processes of economic content (prices, demand, etc.), as well as problems caused by sanctions and the need to resolve import substitution issues, force management decisions to be made in conditions of uncertainty and risk. At the same time, the competent use of resource potential enables enterprises to reduce production costs and increase its efficiency in general. The purpose of the study was to develop a procedure for the formation of alternative solutions to the problem of land management for optimal placement of crops in fields using mathematical and statistical methods. The article presents an overview of a number of scientific studies related to the improvement of the activities of agricultural organizations, the results of which highlight and consider the main factors, methods and methods of increasing its effectiveness. According to official statistical sources, the analysis of the state of agricultural production in Russia, the Volga Federal District and the Orenburg Region in the context of the crop industry is given. The methods of game theory are chosen as tools that allow the formation of alternative options according to a number of criteria (Maximax criterion, Wald maximin criterion, Savage minimum risk criterion, Hurwitz pessimism-optimism criterion). The testing of the computational algorithm was carried out on the materials of one of the agricultural organizations of the Orenburg region. As a result of the study, several strategies for the use of land resources were formed when the enterprise was operating under conditions of uncertainty and risk, depending on the behavior of market conditions and natural and climatic factors. The analysis of the presented calculations showed an increase in the profit of the organization when planning the distribution of areas for agricultural crops using mathematical and statistical tools, and the possibility of automating the computational process (against the background of the digitalization of data flow processing that is relevant today) will significantly reduce the time when making managerial decisions. The results of the work can be recommended to agricultural organizations for use in the process of land management to achieve maximum efficiency and profitability of the business.