Abstract
The Great Bay Area around Hangzhou Bay is the intersection of multiple national strategies the coastal open zone, the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and the Belt and Road Initiative. Ecological carrying capacity is the maximum capacity of an ecosystem to bear human activities on the premise of maintaining its normal operation, which can provide a reference for judging the degree of regional sustainable development and future planning and construction. In this study, the evaluation index system of ecological carrying capacity was constructed based on the PSR model. The spatio-temporal evolution of ecological carrying capacity in the Great Bay Area around Hangzhou from 2006 to 2019 was analyzed using the TOPSIS model, exponential smoothing method and GIS spatial analysis method. The results show that the pressure is carrying capacity generally decreases, and it is predicted to decrease from 2020 to 2022. the state bearing capacity tends to be ideal, and the development prospect is good; response bearing capacity and comprehensive bearing capacity are highly overlapped, reaching the minimum and maximum in 2012 and 2016, respectively; the ecological carrying capacity of cities in the northwest of Hangzhou and Shanghai is in good condition. After the unified planning, the ecological carrying capacity of Jiaxing and other cities has been significantly improved, and the ecological carrying capacity of cities in the bay area is more inclined to balanced development. Combined with the correlation analysis, it is concluded that the proportion of fixed assets investment in the construction of landscaping public facilities in GDP is the key factor restricting the comprehensive carrying capacity. The research results are of great significance to formulating policies for sustainable socio-economic development in the Bay Area.
Highlights
With the rapid development of the economy in today's society, especially the acceleration of industrialization, ecological problems such as resource shortage, ecological degradation and environmental pollution emerge endlessly
Based on the existing research, this paper selects the relevant data from 2006 to 2019, constructs the ecological carrying capacity index system based on the PSR model, and uses the TOPSIS model, exponential smoothing method and GIS spatial analysis method to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of the ecological carrying capacity of the Hangzhou Bay Area from 2006 to 2019, in order to provide the theoretical basis for the planning and construction and sustainable development of the Bay Area
The results showed that the ecological carrying capacity of the bay area changed significantly from 2006 to 2019
Summary
With the rapid development of the economy in today's society, especially the acceleration of industrialization, ecological problems such as resource shortage, ecological degradation and environmental pollution emerge endlessly. (2) In terms of time, from the static analysis of a single year to the dynamic analysis and future prediction with period, for example, Cai Fei et al [10]calculated the ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity and ecological deficit of Xi 'a City from 2010 to 2018 based on the ecological footprint theory; in addition to the current situation evaluation, Peng et al [11]used the grey model to predict the development trend of ecological footprint in the urbanization process of the Yangtze River urban accumulation from 2018 to 2022. For the bay area still under planning, the Evaluation of its ecological carrying capacity, on the one hand, meets the inherent requirements of ecological civilization construction, on the other hand, is conducive to the overall planning, comprehensive coordination and macromanagement of the sustainable development of the regional economy. Based on the existing research, this paper selects the relevant data from 2006 to 2019, constructs the ecological carrying capacity index system based on the PSR model, and uses the TOPSIS model, exponential smoothing method and GIS spatial analysis method to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of the ecological carrying capacity of the Hangzhou Bay Area from 2006 to 2019, in order to provide the theoretical basis for the planning and construction and sustainable development of the Bay Area
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