Further exploring the driving mechanism of ecological carrying capacity changes at the urban agglomeration level

Abstract

The regional ecological carrying capacity (ECC) has been proposed to be strongly affected by human activities. However, the key drivers and driving patterns of ECC, especially among different regions, still lack deep understanding. The Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration (YRDUA) is the most economically developed area facing increasing ecological pressure in China, with numerous spatial differences at the same time. In this study, the ecological footprint was used to assess ECC in the YRDUA and 40 city-level deep learning models were contructed to predict ECC according to 11 socioeconomic factors. Then, through model decomposition, independent driving effect curves were obtained, and the inner driving mechanism of the ECC evolution of each city was analyzed and classified. The results indicate that (1) “Population density” was the most significant ECC driver, while “GDP” and “Output Value of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Industries” were also relatively significant; (2) There were 4 types of cities whose ECC were driven by urban expansion, green economy, industry structure, and population density, respectively; and (3) Jiangsu and Anhui provinces should focus on industrial structure optimization or vegetation restoration in the future, while Shanghai and Zhejiang provinces should reduce resource and environmental costs or control population increases.