Analysis of the Real Estate Market Dynamics as the Effect of Changes in the Road Infrastructure - Case Study in Poland

Abstract

The paper is of analytical and research nature. The scope of the research includes a case study of the real estate market as a result of the rebuilding of a part of the road infrastructure. The purpose of the work is to determine the impact of the development of the communication system on the activity of the real estate market in two communes of the Żywiec district on the example of the section of the S1 expressway. Each type of investment carried out on the market has a positive or negative impact on the environment. The construction and development of the communication system are often a stimulant of the region because in most cases they increase its economic level. As a result of this kind of investment activities of the commune, there are changes on the local real estate markets, related to the spatial development of the region, affecting the standard of living of the population or the level of attractiveness and competitiveness of the region. These changes should also be visible in the level of transaction prices on the local real estate market. Therefore, the analysis of the number of transactions and the level of transaction prices of non-built-up agricultural and forest real estates were undertaken. The research period concerned the time from 2008 to 2015. The research area was made up of two communes in Southern Poland, located in the Malopolska voivodship. A section of the S1 road is located in these communes, the reconstruction of which is an important element of the research. Analyzes carried out allowed to answer the question of whether the development of the communication system in the analyzed communes affected the average prices per 1m2 of undeveloped land. Is there a relationship between the time the transaction is made and the price? Did the year 2011 (as the date of initiation of investments) cause a systematic increase or decrease in the number of transactions concluded? On the basis of the statistical analyzes carried out, it was found in the examined case that there was no linear relationship between the time variable (T) and the price variable (P). This means that these variables are not correlated. The various values of the coefficient of variation calculated for the data of both communes indicate a large dispersion of transaction prices in the examined period. Basic statistics such as: the correlation coefficient, the coefficient of variation, standard time and price deviation, max and min values, median, kurtosis, as well as skewness were examined for the tested sample.