Analysis of the global carbon dioxide emissions from 2003 to 2015: convergence trends and regional contributions

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis paper consolidates and applies statistical methods to the per-capita carbon dioxide emissions and emissions per unit of the gross domestic product (GDP) data of the World Bank member nations, and presents an analysis of the temporal and geographical sources of carbon dioxide emissions. The results indicate that during the observation period, the countries’ per-capita carbon dioxide emissions and emissions per unit of GDP both displayed evidence of convergence. The global per-capita carbon dioxide emissions are relatively stable, and are converging at a rate lower than that of the emissions per unit of GDP. In terms of per-capita income levels, the total emissions of the mid-tier countries continue to grow, and countries with mid-tier per-capita income levels exhibit higher emissions per unit of GDP than both the low and high per-capita income countries. In terms of location of low- and middle-income countries, Southeast Asia and the Pacific have relatively high emission levels, while the per-capita carbon emission levels and the emissions per unit of GDP for Latin America and the Caribbean, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa are below the global average. The gap between emission levels across different countries, geographic regions, and income groups continues to decrease.