Determinants of Energy-Based CO2 Emissions in Ethiopia: A Decomposition Analysis from 1990 to 2017

Gideon Nkam Taka,Ta Thi Huong,Hung-Suck Park,Izhar Hussain Shah

doi:10.3390/su12104175

Abstract

Ethiopia, among the fastest growing economies worldwide, is witnessing rapid urbanization and industrialization that is fueled by greater energy consumption and high levels of CO2 emissions. Currently, Ethiopia is the third largest CO2 emitter in East Africa, yet no comprehensive study has characterized the major drivers of economy-wide CO2 emissions. This paper examines the energy-related CO2 emissions in Ethiopia, and their driving forces between 1990 and 2017 using Kaya identity combined with Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition approach. Main findings reveal that energy-based CO2 emissions have been strongly driven by the economic effect (52%), population effect (43%), and fossil fuel mix effect (40%) while the role of emission intensity effect (14%) was less pronounced during the study period. At the same time, energy intensity improvements have slowed down the growth of CO2 emissions by 49% indicating significant progress towards reduced energy per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) during 1990-2017. Nonetheless, for Ethiopia to achieve its 2030 targets of low-carbon economy, further improvements through reduced emission intensity (in the industrial sector) and fossil fuel share (in the national energy mix) are recommended. Energy intensity could be further improved by technological innovation and promotion of energy-frugal industries.

Highlights

A hike in global warming, the accumulation of carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have attracted global attention
The use of Kaya identity with Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) approach was integrated to decompose changes in CO2 emissions in Ethiopia from 1990–2017
As shown, extended Kaya identity and LMDI approach served as the basis of analysis in which activity effect was analyzed for five different drivers of CO2 change

Summary

Introduction

A hike in global warming, the accumulation of carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have attracted global attention. Emissions of CO2 are a strong environmental consequence of economic development around the world [2]. There is undeniable ample evidence of increasing CO2 emissions, with Africa ranked the most susceptible to global warming. With the rising share of fossil fuels as an energy resource, two major challenges have emerged especially for the developing economies, namely: increasing CO2 emissions and lowering efficiency of energy consumption [4]. This region has set sustainable development targets of reducing

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