Abstract
Rainfall and air temperature variability pose the greatest risk to environmental change. Past trends in rainfall and air temperature facilitate projecting future climate changes for informed policy responses. We used a combination of the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) and observed data from 1968 to 2017 to assess changes in rainfall, moisture stress, and air temperature variability over time on bioclimatic regions of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) Province, South Africa. Indicators used included consecutive dry days (CDDs), consecutive wet days (CWDs), very heavy rainfall days (R20), monthly maximum daily maximum air temperature (TXx), monthly minimum daily minimum air temperature (TNn), the total number of rainfall days, and monthly air temperature averages. Trends in rainfall and moisture stress are notable in different bioclimatic regions across the province. However, these trends are diverse, in general, and spatially different across and within the bioclimatic regions. Further, related rainfall indicators do not respond in the same way as would be expected. Air temperature trends were consistent with global trends and land–air temperature anomalies. Although daytime air temperatures showed a positive trend, extreme air temperature events and increases are predominant in inland regions. Night-time air temperatures showed an upward trend in most stations across KZN. Local weather-and-climate related characteristics are evolving due to climatic variability and change. The study shows that changes in climatic activities are detectable at a local level from existing historical weather data; therefore, adaptation strategies should be contextualised to respond to local and area-specific challenges.
Highlights
In recent years, weather extremes such as heatwaves, droughts, floods, and cyclones have accounted for significant and undesirable impacts on society and the environment [1,2,3]
This study focused on six meteorological stations located in KZN, on the eastern seaboard of South Africa, mainly Newcastle, Ladysmith, Estcourt, Cedara, Durban South, and Cape St Lucia (Figure 1)
These results demonstrate the impact of climate change on various sectors of society which have repercussions on the environment and numerous activities that are directly linked to local livelihoods
Summary
Weather extremes such as heatwaves, droughts, floods, and cyclones have accounted for significant and undesirable impacts on society and the environment [1,2,3]. Efforts are being made to implement strategies to manage climate changerelated risks and enhance adaptive capacity at a local level [4,5]. Most of these strategies lack detailed contextualisation at a local scale [5]. Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over southern Africa [8,9,10]. These other droughtassociated atmospheric interactions over oceans range from typical anticyclonic conditions, cut-off low-pressure systems and tropical, temperate troughs [10]. Due to the influences of ENSO, a semi-arid climate, as well as climate-change-induced climatic variability and change, dryness is becoming devastating in South Africa [5,12]
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