Decreasing Past and Mid-Century Rainfall Indices over the Ouémé River Basin, Benin (West Africa)

Yèkambèssoun N’Tcha M’Po,Emmanuel Lawin,André Attogouinon,Abel Afouda,Benjamin Yao,Ganiyu Oyerinde

doi:10.3390/cli5030074

Yèkambèssoun N’Tcha M’Po, Emmanuel Lawin + Show 4 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5030074

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Abstract

This study analyzed the trends of extreme daily rainfall indices over the Ouémé basin using the observed data from 1950 to 2014 and the projected rainfall of regional climate model REMO (REgional MOdel) for the period 2015–2050. For future trends analysis, two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) new scenarios are considered, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The indices considered are number of heavy rainfall days, number of very heavy rainfall days, consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days, daily maximum rainfall, five-day maximum rainfall, annual wet-day total rainfall, simple daily intensity index, very wet days, and extremely wet days. These indices were calculated at annual and seasonal scales. The Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and the parametric linear regression approach were used for trends detection. As result, significant declining in the number of heavy and very heavy rainfall days, heavy and extremely heavy rainfall, consecutive wet days and annual wet-day rainfall total were detected in most stations for the historical period as well as the future period following the scenario RCP8.5. Furthermore, few stations presented significant trends for the scenario RCP4.5 and the high proportion of stations with the inconsistence trends invites the planners to get ready for an uncertain future climate following this scenario.

Highlights

Uncertainties on future availability of water resources and extremes events are the most important issue that water management planners are facing
We examined at annual and rainy season scale, eleven rainfall indices trends using the Mann-Kendall statistical test and the linear regression approach
Increasing consecutive dry days was revealed indicating the reduction of rainy season length

Summary

Introduction

Uncertainties on future availability of water resources and extremes events are the most important issue that water management planners are facing To this end, understanding trends and variations of historical and future climatic variables is pertinent for the future development and sustainable water resources management in a given region [1]. Since rainfall is a principal element of the hydrological cycle, understanding its behaviour may be of profound social and economic significance [4]. Within this context, the detection of trends of extreme rainfall in long-term observational records and climate projections yields important information for the understanding of climate change and its impact on crucial sectors such as agriculture, ecosystems and water resources.

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