A system dynamics approach for sustainable groundwater management considering climate change, inter-organizational relationships, and domestic water saving

Abstract

This article uses system dynamic modeling to examine the relationship between water allocation from the Ilam dam and groundwater fluctuation, as well as the effects of climate change, changes in inter-organizational relationships, and water demand management on water allocation and groundwater level fluctuations. The results showed that agricultural water allocation has a direct effect on groundwater level fluctuations. In the first scenario, which examined the effects of climate change, the comparison of three climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) was carried out. The results illustrated that with temperature increasing and precipitation decreasing occurred in SSP585, the groundwater drawdown increases about 0.8 m more than SSP126. The second scenario examined the effects of changes in inter-organizational relationships. Based on the results of centrality measures in the social network analysis method, it was found that the organizational power of the stakeholder organization in the agriculture sector is greater than the ones in the environment sector. This causes the allocation to the agriculture sector to be prioritized over the environment. This scenario was analyzed by assuming a change in organizational power and giving priority to the water allocation of the environmental sector. The results showed that environmental needs (maximum 0.3 MCM) were almost entirely met in the second scenario, compared to the basic scenario. Also, the decrease in agricultural water allocation has led to an increase in groundwater usage by farmers, resulting in a 20 cm drop in groundwater levels. Therefore, regarding the sustainable management of water resources, directing attention towards alternative livelihoods for farmers can contribute to environmental water rights and the remediation of aquifers. The third scenario examined the effects of water demand management. The results showed that saving 20–25% of water in the domestic sector can reduce 40–50 cm maximum groundwater drawdown which align with sustainable groundwater management.