Geostatistical Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Variations of Groundwater Level

Abstract

Groundwater and water resources management plays a key role in conserving the sustainable conditions in arid and semi-arid regions. Applying management tools which can reveal the critical and hot conditions seems necessary due to some limitations such as labor and funding. In this study, spatial and temporal analysis of monthly groundwater level fluctuations of 39 piezometric wells monitored during 12 years was carried out. Geostatistics which has been introduced as a management and decision tool by many researchers has been applied to reveal the spatial and temporal structure of groundwater level fluctuation. Results showed that a strong spatial and temporal structure existed for groundwater level fluctuations due to very low nugget effects. Spatial analysis showed a strong structure of groundwater level drop across the study area and temporal analysis showed that groundwater level fluctuations have temporal structure. On average, the range of variograms for spatial and temporal analysis was about 9.7 km and 7.2 months, respectively. Ordinary and universal kriging methods with cross-validation were applied to assess the accuracy of the chosen variograms in estimation of the groundwater level drop and groundwater level fluctuations for spatial and temporal scales, respectively. Results of ordinary and universal krigings revealed that groundwater level drop and groundwater level fluctuations were underestimated by 3% and 6% for spatial and temporal analysis, respectively, which are very low and acceptable errors and support the unbiasedness hypothesis of kriging. Although, our results demonstrated that spatial structure was a little bit stronger than temporal structure, however, estimation of groundwater level drop and groundwater level fluctuations could be performed with low uncertainty in both space and time scales. Moreover, the results showed that kriging is a beneficial and capable tool for detecting those critical regions where need more attentions for sustainable use of groundwater. Regions in which were detected as critical areas need to be much more managed for using the current water resources efficiently. Conducting water harvesting systems especially in critical and hot areas in order to recharge the groundwater, and altering the current cropping pattern to another one that need less water requirement and applying modern irrigation techniques are highly recommended; otherwise, it is most likely that in a few years no more crop would be cultivated.