Integrating standardized indices and performance indicators for better drought assessment in semi-arid coastal aquifers

Abstract

Aquifers in arid and semi-arid coastal regions, such as along the Mediterranean rim, are severely affected by droughts. The natural decrease in water levels is often exacerbated by excessive abstraction, resulting in both degradation of water quality and the risk of seawater intrusion. In these regions it is crucial to conduct thorough monitoring of wells, employing a wide range of indicators to forecast and mitigate the consequences of decreased precipitation and intensified pumping. This study proposes an analysis and monitoring methodology involving the calculation of performance indicators based on the Standardized Groundwater level Index (SGI), supplemented with information on the optimal accumulation time of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Atmospheric reanalysis datasets and in-situ groundwater level observations are used together to derive the groundwater system memory and find consistent optimal SPEI accumulation times at each individual location. The inverse of memory derived from the autocorrelation of the SGI is used to estimate each well's ability to recover from drought conditions. This value provides the most reliable indication of resilience and sustainability. In the Algarve, the average regional variability of groundwater level is well captured by the SPEI-12 index. However, groundwater memories and optimal SPEI accumulation times are spatially very heterogeneous varying between SPEI-5 and SPEI-48. Wells with shorter memories (<6 months) demonstrate greater sustainability, whereas those with longer memories (>16 months), whether situated inland or along the coast, exhibit lower resilience and lower sustainability. Coastal wells with groundwater levels close to sea level, exhibiting minimal resilience, are of particular concern and require intensified monitoring efforts to adapt management strategies.