Abstract
The Brazilian design load standard still provides a wind speed map developed in 1977. Since then, new data have been collected and new charts have been proposed in literature. The literature not only alerts to changes in short-term wind gust patterns, but it also warns that the wind speed values are higher than observed in the past. Many researchers have suggested that these differences are correlated to climate change effects. Besides the geophysical and societal impacts of climate change, there is a general concern between designers on the impacts of higher wind speeds on structural design. This paper aims to analyze the wind speed as a stochastic variable and its influence on the design of steel structures when changes in wind speed occur. A stochastic approach is used to evaluate expected stress values for a steel beam-column example. A Monte Carlo analysis is performed on a forty-story steel frame to compare the impact of different wind speed scenarios and types of analysis. In the analyses, the wind speed is approached by a Gumbel distribution and future wind scenarios are generated for sensitiveness evaluation. The analytical and Monte Carlo analyses indicate that greater attention shall be given to the consequences of using an average wind speed value instead of a probability distribution function.
Highlights
IntroductionFor example: material properties, loading scenarios, boundary conditions, geometry domain, etc., have smaller or larger uncertainties which influence the quantities or functions of interest (Deb et al, 2001)
All data or processes have a certain level of uncertainty
The second study evaluated the reliability associated to the use of a so-called Column Overdesign Factor (COF), which ensures a designer predefined preferable failure mode; this method is usually adopted in seismic structural design
Summary
For example: material properties, loading scenarios, boundary conditions, geometry domain, etc., have smaller or larger uncertainties which influence the quantities or functions of interest (Deb et al, 2001). The probability theory can be applied to understand and quantify how these uncertainties impact these quantities or functions. Some examples using the probability theory to study the safety level of steel structures can be found in Beck & Doria (2008) and Zhao et al (2011). The first study evaluated the reliability of I-section steel columns designed according to the Brazilian standard for the design of steel buildings NBR 8800 (ABNT, 2008). The second study evaluated the reliability associated to the use of a so-called Column Overdesign Factor (COF), which ensures a designer predefined preferable failure mode; this method is usually adopted in seismic structural design
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