A simulation model of negotiations on affordable housing provision

Abstract

ABSTRACT In several planning systems, the provision of affordable housing is negotiated between local authorities and private developers. Those negotiations are not often accessible to students and researchers for understanding and analysis. This article presents a multi-agent simulation model of the negotiations on affordable housing in England. The model is designed to help students and researchers generate hypotheses about the impact of housing markets, local policies and negotiation behaviors on the negotiation outcomes, and consequently, the provision of affordable housing. We conducted a thought experiment using the model. To demonstrate reliability, we compared the outputs against overall trends of affordable housing provisions in England and a previous empirical study of simple negotiations. The results helped in generating four hypotheses. Among them, interestingly, the model hypothesized that there is a range of possible outcomes for each housing market, and negotiation skills can only cause variations within that range. The experiment demonstrated the model’s applicability as a tool for generating hypotheses which can open doors for future exploration, hence supporting housing education and research.